Author Topic: Ares 1X  (Read 85335 times)

Moonwalker

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Re: Ares 1X
« Reply #135 on: January 27, 2010, 10:55:36 PM »
I have great hopes for SpaceX. I'm sure they'll be dashed by beauracracy, but a man can hope. I spent several hours the other day on SpaceX's website researching and going wow. I really believe Elon Musk(sp?) is committed to making his dream work. And, it's not all just about being NASA's taxi service. I never knew he was the guy behind PayPal. That's how he made his initial fortune and started SpaceX on his own dime(s).

I like SpaceX but I don't see it becoming a manned supporter of the ISS. SpaceX is far away from that. If at all, they will carry cargo to the ISS. But even this is still years ahead...


Admin: could you please develope "Soyuz Mission 2011-2020"? ;D

Just kidding ;)

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Re: Ares 1X
« Reply #136 on: January 27, 2010, 11:29:26 PM »
Any word on what will happen to unmanned exploration?

I won't believe it till I hear it. I just can't see the USA getting out of the human spaceflight business...until I remember the vote to approve the Space Shuttle program only passed by one vote in the Senate.

It would be one of the most absurd, shortsighted, and ignorant decisions that a politician has ever made. The American space program is peaceful, inspirational, promotes innovation and international cooperation. How could President Obama possibly justify getting rid of it? It's less than 1% of the Federal Budget! I work in finance, and anytime I see people eliminating budget items that account for an insignificant percentage of their budget, I know it is one hell of a desperate attempt to cut costs and usually means the organization is in dire straits.

I haven't seen any such rumours on NASASpaceFlight forum, so I'll remain cautiously optimistic.

At the very least, we'll have the Chinese space program. Shenzhou 2010 perhaps?

Basically it's up to the Prez... Kennedy put NASA on the map, Obama may well take it off.

HOWEVER, please note that I did say "international cooperation" so NASA will still be a leader, but not THE leader.

2020 is slated for a human expedition to the Moon , but the Astros getting there will ride an international - not solely American - platform.

STS will be mothballed by the end of 2010 as planned and NASA secured a deal with Russia for uniterrupted Astros hauling up and down the ISS until ISS is retired too.

The good news is that the ISS will live at least until 2010 and maybe even beyond - again, with international support.

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Re: Ares 1X
« Reply #137 on: January 27, 2010, 11:30:14 PM »
I have great hopes for SpaceX. I'm sure they'll be dashed by beauracracy, but a man can hope. I spent several hours the other day on SpaceX's website researching and going wow. I really believe Elon Musk(sp?) is committed to making his dream work. And, it's not all just about being NASA's taxi service. I never knew he was the guy behind PayPal. That's how he made his initial fortune and started SpaceX on his own dime(s).

I like SpaceX but I don't see it becoming a manned supporter of the ISS. SpaceX is far away from that. If at all, they will carry cargo to the ISS. But even this is still years ahead...


Admin: could you please develope "Soyuz Mission 2011-2020"? ;D

Just kidding ;)

SpaceX is a major player in the new NASA work-plan, together with other "space exploration entrepreneurs". 'nuf said!

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Moonwalker

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Re: Ares 1X
« Reply #138 on: January 27, 2010, 11:40:07 PM »
Well, seriously: we all know that nobody will ride to the Moon until 2020. That's only 10 years. Anybody is focused on the ISS until then. SpaceX can be happy if they manage to support the ISS with cargo, even with the help of NASA.

Huron_Serenity

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Re: Ares 1X
« Reply #139 on: January 28, 2010, 12:19:03 AM »
Any word on what will happen to unmanned exploration?

I won't believe it till I hear it. I just can't see the USA getting out of the human spaceflight business...until I remember the vote to approve the Space Shuttle program only passed by one vote in the Senate.

It would be one of the most absurd, shortsighted, and ignorant decisions that a politician has ever made. The American space program is peaceful, inspirational, promotes innovation and international cooperation. How could President Obama possibly justify getting rid of it? It's less than 1% of the Federal Budget! I work in finance, and anytime I see people eliminating budget items that account for an insignificant percentage of their budget, I know it is one hell of a desperate attempt to cut costs and usually means the organization is in dire straits.

I haven't seen any such rumours on NASASpaceFlight forum, so I'll remain cautiously optimistic.

At the very least, we'll have the Chinese space program. Shenzhou 2010 perhaps?

Basically it's up to the Prez... Kennedy put NASA on the map, Obama may well take it off.

HOWEVER, please note that I did say "international cooperation" so NASA will still be a leader, but not THE leader.

2020 is slated for a human expedition to the Moon , but the Astros getting there will ride an international - not solely American - platform.

STS will be mothballed by the end of 2010 as planned and NASA secured a deal with Russia for uniterrupted Astros hauling up and down the ISS until ISS is retired too.

The good news is that the ISS will live at least until 2010 and maybe even beyond - again, with international support.

/Admin

2020 for an international expedition to the Moon? I remember when the ISS was given rather similar optimistic deadlines too.

Here is an article in the Orlando Sentinel about all this:

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/space/os-no-moon-for-nasa-20100126,0,2770904.story

"There will be no lunar landers, no moon bases, no Constellation program at all.

In their place, according to White House insiders, agency officials, industry executives and congressional sources familiar with Obama's long-awaited plans for the space agency, NASA will look at developing a new "heavy-lift" rocket that one day will take humans and robots to explore beyond low Earth orbit. But that day will be years — possibly even a decade or more — away.

In the meantime, the White House will direct NASA to concentrate on Earth-science projects — principally, researching and monitoring climate change — and on a new technology research and development program that will one day make human exploration of asteroids and the inner solar system possible."

As I said before, how about Shenzhou 2010? Starting to sound better and better.

Anytime I read "decade or more" or "one day" in articles dealing with a project that requires politicians to approve the funds, I know that the project is certainly dead for foreseeable future.
"It is better to light one candle than to curse the darkness."

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Re: Ares 1X
« Reply #140 on: January 28, 2010, 03:12:55 PM »
Without entering into details and speculations here's my feedback to a few points raised before:

1. It took NASA (and the nation) less than a decade to "land a man on the moon". Of course, the leadership and the challenges (economical, political and technological) were very different, but still, it's been done before.
2. NASA has scheduled SpaceX for an ISS resupply mission for 2011. That Falcon 9 is a nice tool.
3. Don't just yet underestimate SpaceX's Dragon CEV, or on of its future incarnations.

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Moonwalker

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Re: Ares 1X
« Reply #141 on: January 28, 2010, 04:07:07 PM »
To go to the moon required a huge infratsructure and a lot of money. Money that only governments offer for space flight. The manpower required to put NASA on the surface of the moon, and that within less than 10 years (from announcement until first touchdown it was only 8 years) required almost a whole country i.e. its most powerful companies (Boeing, McDonnell Douglas, IBM and much much more) to work almost 24 hours a day under big political and leadership pressure. That is something no private company has and not even NASA gets today. What SpaceX is able to do is within a very narrow range compared to Apollo and NASA. They might launch cargo sometime within the next 10 years to the ISS, and maybe, just maybe, by much money and help, humans to the ISS. But that will be it. If Europe, Russia and the USA don't work together, or if Obama does not assign NASA a real new goal and straight program, we won't see any manned missions beyond earth orbit. This is as safe as the Bank of England!

Huron_Serenity: forget about Shenzhou. Why are you so focused on it? The leadership in manned space flight goes to Russia anyway. The Chinese space flight program is not in a good shape at all. They launch too rarely. They flew only 3 times within 5 years. And their next flight is not going to happen until 2011, which is a gap of 3 years, and which all in all makes it only 4 manned flights within nearly a decade. They're just doing a propaganda show to show that they are also are able to do big things now (finally after many decades of testing rockets...). But the science is minor, very minor. Without partnership they won't be able to hold a candle to Russia, less than ever to the USA.

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Re: Ares 1X
« Reply #142 on: January 28, 2010, 06:54:02 PM »
Moonwalker,

I didn't say or imply that SpaceX will get to the Moon within 10 years. Point #1 referred to NASA (and USA) alone, under the proper economical, political and technological conditions. Currently, only the technological condition is met.

I do stand by my points #2 and #3 though based again, on firm information, not speculation.

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Moonwalker

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Re: Ares 1X
« Reply #143 on: January 28, 2010, 07:17:00 PM »
Yes, SpaceX might launch crew to the ISS. That's their intention based on firm information of course. But they are still quite away from it. Dragon is still under development (mockups, videos and computer models basically AFAIK), and we already have 2010. Completing development and testing will take still some time until they finally will launch cargo to the ISS, and some more time until they will launch crew to the ISS after testing and man-rating the intended manned version. NASA needs to put some money into it if they don't want to see a relatively huge gap after ISS retirement.

I like the SpaceX and the COTS concepts. But at the moment it's still overestimated rather than underestimated I think. Falcon 9 did not even successfully get off the ground yet. We will still have to wait quite some time...

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Re: Ares 1X
« Reply #144 on: January 28, 2010, 08:20:29 PM »
Moonwalker,

Just as my previous posts are beginning to receive official confirmation, based on today's US morning news, believe me on the SpaceX cargo haul to the ISS on 2011, and Dragon future ;)

That unless somebody grows some serious Titanium balls at the White House and gets his/her priorities right <VBG>

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Moonwalker

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Re: Ares 1X
« Reply #145 on: January 29, 2010, 05:47:44 AM »
Yes, Dragon might have a future on the ISS. But it's temporary for now, just adapted to the ISS, not really a wide NASA future. And crews aboard Dragon still is music. We'll see...

Meanwhile, it is interesting to see that beside all the rumors going on across the web, NASA has finished building something that is similar to the Apollo Program: a 118 meter mobile launch tower for the Ares 1 ;D



http://spaceflightnow.com/news/n1001/28arestower/

Maybe not the end of Ares? Maybe just "anonymous" rumors going on? Now I'm curious what Obama is going to tell us. Since I can not imagine that NASA insiders and managers do know less than we and/or "anonymous" web news ;) If they do such big things, they must have good reasons...

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Re: Ares 1X
« Reply #146 on: January 29, 2010, 01:56:22 PM »
LOL - not really "anonymous" and not "web news". What about very real and most relevant persons telling you in person face-to-face?

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Moonwalker

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Re: Ares 1X
« Reply #147 on: January 29, 2010, 07:49:40 PM »
Well, nobody talked to me face to face for now, especially not somebody from the White House or NASA ;D All those rumors are comming from "insiders" and "officials" (who don't want to be named) or people who tell they were told something from somebody.

I'm really curious now what Obama is going to tell us really...

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Re: Ares 1X
« Reply #148 on: January 30, 2010, 12:50:57 AM »
Well, nobody talked to me face to face for now, especially not somebody from the White House or NASA ;D All those rumors are comming from "insiders" and "officials" (who don't want to be named) or people who tell they were told something from somebody.

I'm really curious now what Obama is going to tell us really...


Well, I can't do anything about you not having the "right" sources. For you, these are rumors, for me, these are already facts.

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Moonwalker

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Re: Ares 1X
« Reply #149 on: January 30, 2010, 02:01:12 AM »
Well, nobody talked to me face to face for now, especially not somebody from the White House or NASA ;D All those rumors are comming from "insiders" and "officials" (who don't want to be named) or people who tell they were told something from somebody.

I'm really curious now what Obama is going to tell us really...


Well, I can't do anything about you not having the "right" sources. For you, these are rumors, for me, these are already facts.

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The problem is that Obama did not yet announce anything and all sources across the web a referring to insinders who don't want to be named.

By the way, what would happen if Obamas plans fail? I mean, he is also going to fail with his health care reform. Doesn't he also need to get popularity to change the space program? I don't think he can't say: "we do it that way" and anybody just follows silently. NASA has a huge lobby in congress, and if Obama is going to cut US leadership in space, who would seriously believe that all politicians and decision maker in congress will just shut up and follow? I can't imagine that, if all the news are right and Obama is going to cut NASA, that this won't stir up outrage and political fights.

"Obama's NASA facelift faces tough fight in Congress":

http://www.spaceflightnow.com/news/n1001/28congress/
« Last Edit: January 30, 2010, 02:02:49 AM by Moonwalker »