Well, Ares I sadly is not a done deal at all. Work on it only continues as long as NASA has the go to continue. That's what one of the managers also said during one of the Ares I-X post-conferences. Everything depends on the white houte and congress. If they want to see things change, things will change. NASA depends on its "financier".
The problem of the latest course of Obama, if the source is trustable, is that the government is continuing to not make access to space cheap and reliable. They again are going to continue building something that's expensive and certainly not for the wide future. Orion needs more than just a heavy-lift launch vehicle. Also, Obama does not seem to consider the ISS at all. If they stop Ares I now, and put 1 billion "pocket money" into a heay-lift launcher, NASA is going to be what I didn't want to say before: out of the manned business. 1 billion is nothing. It won't help getting Ares I off the ground. Less than ever will they build and operate a heavy-lift launch vehicle until 2018. NASA is going to lose manned access to space really, which won't be a gap anymore, but a total stop for an uncertain period of time, probably right into the late 2010s or even into the 2020s.
It's nice that Obama considers international work. That is what I believe for a long time already: a real requirement if we want to fly to the Moon and beyond. The maverick way was possible for Apollo, but only for a very few years because it simply was too expensive. International partnership does work and does enable great projects like we can already see by the ISS. But again, like Apollo and the Shuttle, a heavy-lift launch vehicle and a lunar lander is not something for the wide future. It's for a big show of footprints on the lunar surface. But what after? There won't be no cheap manned access to space for NASA beside a grounded heavy-lift launcher and a few new descent stages on the lunar surface.
To cancel Ares I and put ridiculously less money into a heavy-lift launcher is to cancel manned access to space. Those politicians and decision maker today have no skill, no spirit, and no imagination anymore. We need somebody like Kennedy. Not somebody who "seems to be" like Kenney but does just indeed nothing more than lip service. To be honest: Obama and his team does not seem to have any clue of space flight. But that's what Obama already was known for. He is not a space flight enthusiast. My personal point of view is that space flight seems to be only a necessary evil for him.
No matter what happens this year, I can already see a bright future for Soyuz. Not that only Europe is going to operate it on its own in French Guyana, but also US astronauts will ride on it for many years to come...
People can think about Russia whatever they want. But one thing is for sue: they did it very right with Soyuz. Something NASA missed to build until today and in future obviously...