Author Topic: Oh freakin' yeah!  (Read 15308 times)

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Oh freakin' yeah!
« on: July 16, 2010, 09:41:55 PM »
« Last Edit: July 16, 2010, 10:58:56 PM by Admin »
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Jack Ryan

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Re: Oh freakin' yeah!
« Reply #1 on: July 17, 2010, 03:01:53 AM »
A very good news!
I'm very happy to see that STS 135 will eventually fly, and of course that NASA will have again a spacecraft and the glorious day started with mercury are not ended yet.
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Richard R

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Re: Oh freakin' yeah!
« Reply #2 on: July 17, 2010, 03:32:21 AM »
 :)


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davidrobinsonjr

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Re: Oh freakin' yeah!
« Reply #3 on: July 17, 2010, 06:43:25 AM »
Hooray for the extra shuttle flight. We will see about the rest. As we found with Ares, even after they have begun test flying doesn't mean the program is safe. Lets hope for the best. :)
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Spaceguy5

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Re: Oh freakin' yeah!
« Reply #4 on: July 17, 2010, 08:01:58 AM »
!!!!!!!!!!

...

...

...

 :D  8) :D
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Huron_Serenity

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Re: Oh freakin' yeah!
« Reply #5 on: July 17, 2010, 08:18:36 PM »
It doesn't mean that STS-135 will actually happen. It still has to get full Senate approval, and I presume House approval too.

What a Congressional Committee approves and what actually happens is not always one and the same.
« Last Edit: July 17, 2010, 08:20:22 PM by Huron_Serenity »
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davidrobinsonjr

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Re: Oh freakin' yeah!
« Reply #6 on: July 17, 2010, 08:30:37 PM »
Quote
It doesn't mean that STS-135 will actually happen. It still has to get full Senate approval, and I presume House approval too.

What a Congressional Committee approves and what actually happens is not always one and the same.

This is absoutly true. Alot of people want this though. I suspect the HLV will be a much harder sell. This is an election year and Congress needs to give out "free" stuff. We will see what happens with funding.
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Moonwalker

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Re: Oh freakin' yeah!
« Reply #7 on: July 18, 2010, 01:33:41 AM »
There is not a single reason yet to be happy. One more STS mission, potentially, and the heavy lift vehicle, still potentially. There is a bunch of valid reasons to be deeply concerned about the future of the US manned space flight program for this decade, and likely deep into the next decade as well.

Spaceguy5

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Re: Oh freakin' yeah!
« Reply #8 on: July 18, 2010, 01:43:55 AM »
Yes, but this is at least a step forward. Stop the pessimism please =p
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Moonwalker

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Re: Oh freakin' yeah!
« Reply #9 on: July 18, 2010, 05:26:45 AM »
Yes, but this is at least a step forward. Stop the pessimism please =p

Usually I'm a big optimist ;)

But in this case there is not a lot to be optimistic about. The future of NASA's manned program is anything but certain yet (or in other words: there is none at all at the moment). Especially now that we have seen how they messed up with Constellation for years, and how they're messing up any further proposals. Politicians have learned exactly nothing since the end of Apollo and the pre-STS era. We need less dependant commercial space industries rather than space agencies as never before. Otherwise the future of manned exploration beyond low earth orbit looks like the past 38 years: pretty dark and quiet.

A state never is a good businessman. As long as manned space flight will remain a miserable puppet of politicians and their agendas, there is no reason to feel happy especially these days. Those programs wax and wane in conjunction with their political agendas. Whenever people hear that truth, they like to use the the big word "but": but without the government we wouldn't have seen Gagarin, Glenn, Armstrong etc. doing what they did. No. It was the Cold War which was the only key event that opened the doors for the age of manned space flight. Politicians never were seriously interested in manned space flight and the corresponding sciences. Less than ever Obama. What he does just is what everybody previously did as well: political run-of-the-mill lip service. And the congress and senate is even worse. They don't understand space flight and how to do things right at all. The criticism already is as big as it was on Constellation for years (also in direction of the NASA leadership)...
« Last Edit: July 18, 2010, 05:34:33 AM by Moonwalker »

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Re: Oh freakin' yeah!
« Reply #10 on: July 18, 2010, 12:08:43 PM »
Yes, but this is at least a step forward. Stop the pessimism please =p

Usually I'm a big optimist ;)

But in this case there is not a lot to be optimistic about. The future of NASA's manned program is anything but certain yet (or in other words: there is none at all at the moment). Especially now that we have seen how they messed up with Constellation for years, and how they're messing up any further proposals. Politicians have learned exactly nothing since the end of Apollo and the pre-STS era. We need less dependant commercial space industries rather than space agencies as never before. Otherwise the future of manned exploration beyond low earth orbit looks like the past 38 years: pretty dark and quiet.

A state never is a good businessman. As long as manned space flight will remain a miserable puppet of politicians and their agendas, there is no reason to feel happy especially these days. Those programs wax and wane in conjunction with their political agendas. Whenever people hear that truth, they like to use the the big word "but": but without the government we wouldn't have seen Gagarin, Glenn, Armstrong etc. doing what they did. No. It was the Cold War which was the only key event that opened the doors for the age of manned space flight. Politicians never were seriously interested in manned space flight and the corresponding sciences. Less than ever Obama. What he does just is what everybody previously did as well: political run-of-the-mill lip service. And the congress and senate is even worse. They don't understand space flight and how to do things right at all. The criticism already is as big as it was on Constellation for years (also in direction of the NASA leadership)...

Real space exploration, and especially manned space exploration will never be performed by commercial companies: they don't have the resources and their board of directors and stockholders will never agree to an ROI of 30 years or more. There is no short-time profit in space exploration so I don't expect any sane "businessman" to "go boldly where no man has been before".

That will not happen.

Ever.

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Moonwalker

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Re: Oh freakin' yeah!
« Reply #11 on: July 19, 2010, 07:41:14 AM »
Real space exploration, and especially manned space exploration will never be performed by commercial companies: they don't have the resources and their board of directors and stockholders will never agree to an ROI of 30 years or more. There is no short-time profit in space exploration so I don't expect any sane "businessman" to "go boldly where no man has been before".

That will not happen.

Ever.

/Admin

And Columbus and not even Lindbergh would have expecetd that these days you can get a ticket and fly from Europe to the USA in just 6-10 hours, whether you want to arrive on the US east coast or west coast, with a 200+ tons flying machine.

A lot of People also thought that launching rockets will never happen commercially. Today 50% of all Russian launches are commercial launches already. 30% of all European launches are commerical (whilst Arianespace gets more than a billion Euros revenue each year). But only 6% of US launches are commercially which depends on the narrow minds in Washington, once more proved by the senate.

A lot of people still think that launching rockets and men into space is something that can be only done by bloated bureaucracies (I thought this as well but it's off the track and really has no wide future). Space flight always has been performed by commercial companies in the US. Without them we would have seen no Boeing 707, no lunar landar, no SaturnV, no Space Shuttle etc. (and NASA just would have been a small office block in Washington). Those companies are basically involved in military and commercial aviation technologies. For space flight they just get paid by the state. But they do have actually much more effecient resources than NASA. Just take a look at Boeing. They're capable to build a 747 within only ~90 days, several of them in parallel. Without those companies we wouldn't have seen anything in the stratosphere and in space since the 1950's. 

SpaceX is the first company that fully developed and launched rockets privately and so silenced a lot of sceptics. They've already got the biggest commercial contract in space flight history and their goal is to perform manned space flight. Other companies will emerge in the wirde future. It's the beginning of what a lof of serious space people call for since the 1970's already. The way things still work these days NASA has no glorious future anymore. Things already have started to become bad, and it's only the beginning. The senate isn't doing anything good to NASA (but only to jobs).

http://www.commercialspaceflight.org/?p=1277

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Private_spaceflight

davidrobinsonjr

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Re: Oh freakin' yeah!
« Reply #12 on: July 19, 2010, 08:47:05 AM »
Quote
SpaceX is the first company that fully developed and launched rockets privately and so silenced a lot of sceptics.

They did so primarily with funding from the government(NASA). $349M out of $500M spent so far according to Musk. Columbus was also funded by the government.

http://www.spacenews.com/venture_space/100611-spacex-drop-dragon-flight.html
« Last Edit: July 19, 2010, 08:50:38 AM by davidrobinsonjr »
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Re: Oh freakin' yeah!
« Reply #13 on: July 19, 2010, 12:00:03 PM »
Moonwalker,

Columbus did it with the sponsorship of the Spanish Crown - not really pocket money, and they were after shorter routes to the spice of  India, and later, his following "discoverers" after the New World's Slaves and Gold. Discovery and exploration was an side-effect of conquest, genocide and exploitation.

As for Lindbergh? That's not exploration - it's maxxing out existing transportation! Or maybe exploring how far human arrogance can go (in this specific case). And the ROI was immediate - instant glory and recognition - same as with those who follow his steps, and went for similar records and such.

Anyway, please don't confuse attempts to Guiness records with true exploration.

I am happy that there are more people know the difference between transportation and exploration than those who don't.

I for one, am not putting my money on any exo-planetary exploration done by SpaceX - not after listening to the latest SpaceX lecture (by their CEO) about their BUSINESS plan: transportation and satellite launch. IF they will do any kind of vehicles rated for true, planetary manned space exploration, it will be only with heavy governmental funding, but for that, the government (NASA) must have a manned space exploration in the first place.

Don't want to believe it? Ask SpaceX!

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« Last Edit: July 19, 2010, 06:45:17 PM by Admin »
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Moonwalker

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Re: Oh freakin' yeah!
« Reply #14 on: July 23, 2010, 07:31:55 AM »
Vostok, Mercury, Gemini and Apollo was "true exploration". Those programs did test, try and enable things humans had never done before. But today, what the Space Shuttle does for example (and Soyuz as well) isn't "true exploration" anymore in the first place. STS basically is a transportation system that was meant to be commercially sucessful and self-profitable, which was the only reasoning that enabled its funding. But NASA's structure still does not enable an efficient program yet. Constellation was another example of a big epic fail. It's not because "it is always expensive". It is because of the way NASA gets and distributes money and how the whole thing works (it's a big national job keeping program and a big bureaucracy).

Commercial space flight does not mean that people directly pay companies. It means a different way of distributing the money. Of course SpaceX gets money from NASA, i.e. the government. But the difference is that SpaceX works more efficient with that money. For the development cost of Falcon 9, including Dragon (only ~370 million USD), NASA wouldn't even have managed to clean the floor inside the VAB. Of course it's ironic but we shouldn't forget that Constellation has swallowed 9 billion USD whilst there is not a single piece of an Ares 1 second stage and no Orion (beside mockups). All we've seen is animations and 3d videos. 50 more billion USD would have been required to finish the thing and make it fly whilst it would have been more costly to operate than the Shuttle (with 50% less payload capability). A lot of people still didn't realize that the way NASA works they won't return to space manned anytime soon, at least not by wasting billions whilst it could be done less costly. The world has significantly changed since the early 1970's when the Shuttle program got the go.

Not NASA, but SpaceX got the biggest commercial contract in space flight history with Iridium Communications Inc. (about 500 million USD). And again, 50% of all Russian launches are commercial launches whilst NASA does only about 6% comercial launches. NASA is in a downward spiral. And the senate isn't going to make it any better. NASA needs reforms. Reforms that will hurt a lot of people but it's necessary if NASA wants to keep a reasonable level of funding for manned access to space...

I now that I'm not making a lot of friends when I say this: the big times of big manned space programs are over. There are only two ways: more commercialisation or international partnership.

Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.

Lord Kelvin, president, Royal Society, 1895
« Last Edit: July 23, 2010, 07:46:34 AM by Moonwalker »