Author Topic: Shuttle/Ares... what next?  (Read 11191 times)

Moonwalker

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Shuttle/Ares... what next?
« on: October 05, 2008, 10:06:52 PM »
Although this is the wrong thread for that, I also would love to see an Ares simulation, especially including the AresV and its lunar landing mission profiles.

Anyway, that's still at least 12 years ahead until NASA lands on the Moon again and we might have an Ares simulation. An AresI simulation with Orion only wouldn't even be as half as interesting as the AresV or the Space Shuttle. Orion on its own is just a crew transporter, which not even allows EVA's.

But meanwhile I nevertheless think that NASA is doing very well with Constellation and Orion when returning to the Moon and flying to Mars still wihtin the first half of this century.

Like NASA administrator Michael Griffin said once: the ISS and the Shuttle was "not the right path" and NASA lost its vision/focus in the 1970's by canceling the Apollo Program.

Or like Eileen Collins said: "We have learned so much about our space environment by flying the Shuttle. And no it's time to go farther."

The loss of the Shuttle is not really a loss. It's closing a gap which exists since 1972/1975 (loss of Apollo and Skylab) and so it's the continuation or real manned space exploration into deep space instead of orbiting the earth only, for decades.

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Shuttle/Ares... what next?
« Reply #1 on: October 06, 2008, 01:01:36 PM »
Although this is the wrong thread for that, I also would love to see an Ares simulation, especially including the AresV and its lunar landing mission profiles.

Anyway, that's still at least 12 years ahead until NASA lands on the Moon again and we might have an Ares simulation. An AresI simulation with Orion only wouldn't even be as half as interesting as the AresV or the Space Shuttle. Orion on its own is just a crew transporter, which not even allows EVA's.

But meanwhile I nevertheless think that NASA is doing very well with Constellation and Orion when returning to the Moon and flying to Mars still wihtin the first half of this century.

Like NASA administrator Michael Griffin said once: the ISS and the Shuttle was "not the right path" and NASA lost its vision/focus in the 1970's by canceling the Apollo Program.

Or like Eileen Collins said: "We have learned so much about our space environment by flying the Shuttle. And no it's time to go farther."

The loss of the Shuttle is not really a loss. It's closing a gap which exists since 1972/1975 (loss of Apollo and Skylab) and so it's the continuation or real manned space exploration into deep space instead of orbiting the earth only, for decades.

Still a LOT of problems with Ares... I am not so "optimistic" about this program. It will take off, no doubt about it, but NOT on the planned schedule. But then what is? LOL!

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« Last Edit: October 10, 2008, 01:17:57 AM by Admin »
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Moonwalker

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Shuttle/Ares... what next?
« Reply #2 on: October 06, 2008, 02:44:15 PM »
Still a LOT of problems with Ares... I am not so "optimistic" about this program. It will take off, no doubt about it, but NOT on the planned schedule. But then what is? LOL!

It is usual that there are challenges when designing a new system. The development of the Space Shuttle for example didn't look different to those challenges. But this time we have the internet and a lot of people watching NASA progresses and so it's like NASA administrator Michael Griffin mentioned a short while ago, that the so called problems just is something which exist in "certain internet blogs" which mostly contain misinformation and guesswork by people outside NASA and even outside the spaceflight business ;)

Anyway, to stop it here, I still feel rather happy with the Shuttle and I love SSM07 including its current instrument panels ;D
« Last Edit: October 06, 2008, 02:45:57 PM by Moonwalker »

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Shuttle/Ares... what next?
« Reply #3 on: October 06, 2008, 07:20:51 PM »
Still a LOT of problems with Ares... I am not so "optimistic" about this program. It will take off, no doubt about it, but NOT on the planned schedule. But then what is? LOL!

...SNIP...

Anyway, to stop it here, I still feel rather happy with the Shuttle and I love SSM07 including its current instrument panels ;D

LOL!
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Cthulhus

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Shuttle/Ares... what next?
« Reply #4 on: October 09, 2008, 04:45:53 PM »
We should not even bury the Space Shuttle! It is possible that his life be extended with all the problems in the U.S. ... Orion will cost much more than maintaining the shuttle's programm ...

It is therefore possible that our dear Shuttles go until 2012 or 2013 ...

The next president will take this decision ... but both candidates have already made allusions.
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Shuttle/Ares... what next?
« Reply #5 on: October 09, 2008, 06:30:28 PM »
I know we are getting of topic but the thing is that the shuttle is a low orbit vehicle.  For the money our taxes are going to, we need to dig deeper into our solar system and the universe.  Ares could possibly get us to Mars.  Atlantis can't get us to the moon.  Look, I love the shuttle program and I love the ISS.  Yet we need to go farther.     
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Chris Bergin

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Re: Shuttle/Ares... what next?
« Reply #6 on: October 10, 2008, 12:15:39 AM »
Still a LOT of problems with Ares... I am not so "optimistic" about this program. It will take off, no doubt about it, but NOT on the planned schedule. But then what is? LOL!

It is usual that there are challenges when designing a new system. The development of the Space Shuttle for example didn't look different to those challenges. But this time we have the internet and a lot of people watching NASA progresses and so it's like NASA administrator Michael Griffin mentioned a short while ago, that the so called problems just is something which exist in "certain internet blogs" which mostly contain misinformation and guesswork by people outside NASA and even outside the spaceflight business ;)


With respect, the above comment is entirely incorrect and requires addressing.

Mike Griffin's comment (which was aimed at the Orlando Sentinel about a year ago) was more out of frustration that every single news site has noted the vehicle has serious issues. And while I'm no fan of some of "blog sites" - given commentary about certain issues is open for mistranslation and misinterpretation - the news sites (non commentary media working from actual CxP documentation) are actually, one a whole, under-representing just how serious the issues with Ares I are in reality. You've just bunched all the sites into the "blog site" comment you made, which is quite frankly insulting.

As a news site, that has 173 CxP engineers on it, a site that is referenced by NASA even at 8th Floor level, and has 400gbs of CxP documentation on it via the non ITAR/Export Control Windchill supply line, I can assure you that the ACTUAL documentation is very clear on how this is more than "usual design challenges".

Moving past just the documentation and the potential of misrepresentation, the actual people working on this vehicle below upper management are crystal clear on these issues, their required mitigation, and the continued pressure on the DACs.

This is a vehicle that has caused so much pain on Orion via performance and mass properties, Orion had to undergo a ZBV process to strip down to removing certain aspects of flight critical redundancy, only adding it back on with the removal of the land landing option. 5.5m to 5m didn't work. Stripping 50 percent off the SM didn't work. ZBV had to work, but as a result caused Lockheed Martin to send DOCUMENTED notes of their frustration with the constant changes to their DACs - the latest causing an 18 month delay to Orion's PDR.

These issues are all being caused by Ares I - who's PDR started off by claiming TO was solved, before Jeff Hanley had to admit this wasn't the case, with a requirement for a Delta PDR next year. This is a vehicle with nine RED threats to its development, that they had to switch to "ORANGE" to get it through the recent PDR. (DOCUMENTED)

I'll give you an example of one of the ORANGE risk - one that's not even at the top of the list compared to TO mitigation etc:

Lift off Drift Curve. This has increased by 50 percent in just one DAC. This means the vehicle currently drifts into the top of the FSS during launch, which is a Loss Of Vehicle/Crew (LOVC) event (DOCUMENTED). To mitigate this requires a complete redesign of the billion dollar ML effort, scrapping the previous 16 months of development. (DOCUMENTED).

The comment "misinformation and guesswork by people outside NASA and even outside the spaceflight business" is non applicable to most news sites (forget blog sites), who base their news via the actual documentation and the actual engineers.

To claim otherwise is more applicable to your comment.

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Re: Shuttle/Ares... what next?
« Reply #7 on: October 10, 2008, 01:19:56 AM »
I have to second Chris on this one. His website must be among the most (if not THE most) informed and reliable websites on NASA and its programs status.

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christra

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Re: Shuttle/Ares... what next?
« Reply #8 on: October 10, 2008, 12:44:14 PM »
I am sorry Chris, in your anger you used so many abbreviations... could you explain what:
CxP, DAC, PDR, TO
means?
« Last Edit: October 10, 2008, 03:16:47 PM by Admin »

Moonwalker

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Re: Shuttle/Ares... what next?
« Reply #9 on: October 11, 2008, 01:58:15 AM »
"This is a development project like Apollo. I hope no one was so ill-informed as to believe that we would be able to develop a system to replace the shuttle without facing any challenges in doing so"

Michael Griffin

I think there is nothing more left to do further guesswork about, unless somebody here works for NASA, especially on Ares and so is able to evaluate the development progress.
« Last Edit: October 11, 2008, 02:02:14 AM by Moonwalker »

Moonwalker

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Re: Shuttle/Ares... what next?
« Reply #10 on: October 11, 2008, 03:13:47 AM »
We should not even bury the Space Shuttle! It is possible that his life be extended with all the problems in the U.S. ... Orion will cost much more than maintaining the shuttle's programm ...

It is therefore possible that our dear Shuttles go until 2012 or 2013 ...

The next president will take this decision ... but both candidates have already made allusions.

I'm not a friend of extending the STS program only for the sake of see it flying which seems to be the most obvious reasoning.

The design flaws of STS (its fully unprotected TPS and foam loss of the ET) have caused 7 people to die and shown a much higher risk than expected for many years. Further operation of the STS requires elaborate procedures as we all know but which doesn't even prevent the need to prepare potential "rescue" missions like STS-400. From my point of view this is not the very best way to operate a system in the long run. STS-107 actually has caused the end of the STS already. Further operation only was and still is vindicated by the commitments of assembling the ISS.

I think exactly the way Michael Griffin already said publicly, that the STS was not the right path related to manned missions to the Moon and Mars. With Constellation now underway, I don't think it would be a good idea to keep the Shuttle flying only for the sake of see it flying until Ares lifts off. I think it is the best way to end STS in 2010, finally after almost three decades (which indeed shows that NASA has lost its way concerning manned journeys into deep space) and fully concentrate on Constellation. Should STS-400 have happened or should it happen in 2009, then NASA anyway stops the STS program immediately while fully concentrating on Ares.

Also, I don't have any numbers yet, but I can't really imagine that further operation of the STS takes less money than Ares and Orion would once they fly.

I can understand that it is disappointing for people who grew up with the Shuttle, including myself too. But I don't think that this is a valid reaon to keep it flying only for the sake of filling a gap in the US manned space program. NASA sadly totally lost its visions of keep flying to Moon and go ahead to Mars. I even see the end of the STS as the greatest chance to continue real manned space exploration since the end of Apollo.
« Last Edit: October 11, 2008, 03:20:45 AM by Moonwalker »

Chris Bergin

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Re: Shuttle/Ares... what next?
« Reply #11 on: October 11, 2008, 05:46:28 PM »
I have to second Chris on this one. His website must be among the most (if not THE most) informed and reliable websites on NASA and its programs status.

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Thanks! I'm only a journalist, my opinion means very little - which is why I'm not an op-ed, or one of those "blog sites" that have rightly been slapped down by CxP. I translate the documentation via the actual engineers into news, so the content is thanks to those guys. This is important to remember, as I would be the first person to say "Who the heck is Chris Bergin, telling me if the vehicle is struggling in the dev stage." I'm not, the engineers are, and the official documentation is.

Trust me on this. We're extreemly pro-NASA. We're the first to slap down the "arm-waving" nonsense some sites report about NASA, so it's doubly hard to report negatives via our baseline goals of what the site is about.

I'll link one article as an example:
http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2008/09/orions-plea-to-ares-i-stop-adversely-hindering-our-design-process/

That is fully based on documentation, and I even sent the draft to two CxP guys at MSFC, one at CxP KSC and an Orion manager at Lockheed for comments and context. It's the nearest we can get to this being actually written by the engineers.

I am sorry Chris, in your anger you used so many abbreviations... could you explain what:
CxP, DAC, PDR, TO
means?


Oops, sorry - wasn't anger, just frustration :)

CxP = Constellation Program
DAC = Design Analysis Cycle
PDR = Preliminary Design Review
TO = Thrust Oscillation
ZBV = Zero Based Vehicle
« Last Edit: October 11, 2008, 05:54:38 PM by Chris Bergin »

Moonwalker

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Re: Shuttle/Ares... what next?
« Reply #12 on: October 11, 2008, 07:35:31 PM »
Chris,

I really appreciate your great work you do. I'm also going to create a L2 - Account.

Concerning Ares/Orion, I think that spaceflight and aviation engineering always is about problems and challenges. Not too many vehicles lifted/took off with its inital design ideas, being reduced or changed. Even changed slightly during operational status like the STS. Of course I'm aware of that there are issues with Ares and Orion going on. But I think that most of those issues aren't really "pains" or big problems. This is more personal point of views by some people and certainly by a few engineers too. Orion for sure won't lift off on a scale as initially planned. But the question is if this really is a pain or very bad. I'm not an engineer, but as a spaceflight fanatic I can live with a reduced vehicle mass, even with a reduced crew size and a water landing capability rather than landing on solid ground and things like that. I don't see it as a real pain or big problems.

The STS also never really has achieved what is was designed for, being a cheap profitable vehicle performing some hundred flights until 2000. STS-51L and 107 also have cast a poor light on STS. But at the end, in a way, STS was and still is an amazing and successfull system. It is even more safe than Apollo was although it has a critical design flaw (the unprotected TPS). We can always see the bad things, but there are also good things. A glass of water can be 50% full or 50% empty ;)

At the end Orion will fly for sure I think, if being reduced from its intial design or not.
« Last Edit: October 11, 2008, 07:38:55 PM by Moonwalker »

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Re: Shuttle/Ares... what next?
« Reply #13 on: October 11, 2008, 08:00:57 PM »
...<SNIP>...
At the end Orion will fly for sure I think, if being reduced from its intial design or not.

Exactly what I said earlier in this thread  8)

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Moonwalker

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Re: Shuttle/Ares... what next?
« Reply #14 on: October 12, 2008, 03:52:29 AM »
...<SNIP>...
At the end Orion will fly for sure I think, if being reduced from its intial design or not.

Exactly what I said earlier in this thread  8)

Ah, yes ;D