Author Topic: STS etc. chatter  (Read 6442 times)

Spacewalker

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STS etc. chatter
« on: June 28, 2010, 12:49:10 AM »
As much as I want to see more Shuttle flights, I also fear for the Astros. The Shuttle was planned for 100 flights and due to many on-going improvements in technology, procedure and materials, it has been significantly outliving its programmed life.

If NASA had a full 5 units fleet, I would feel much more comfortable, but having only three workhorses, they are not only "old" but also put to more work than planned.

I share your concern for the safety of the crews, but for a different reason.
I think that the number of missions already flown is not much of a problem. The Shuttles were built for 100 flights each, not the whole program in total. To date, Discovery has flown 38 missions, Atlantis 32 missions and Endeavour 24 missions. So, in this respect, there is a lot of lifetime left in them. The age (in years) should also not be a problem, as each shuttle is very well taken care of and maintained after each mission with very thorough inspections, and many systems and parts being either exchanged or completely overhauled after each flight.

As we all know, the biggest risk is the fact that the TPS is not covered and thus not protected against damage during the ascent phase or in orbit. Even though many changes have been made and many precautions are taken before and during every mission, this risk is very present on every mission and nobody really knows if and when it could happen again.

Even though I would love to see a few more shuttle flights than those currently manifested, I just hope that the program ends before luck runs out again.

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STS etc. chatter
« Reply #1 on: June 28, 2010, 01:11:25 AM »
As much as I want to see more Shuttle flights, I also fear for the Astros. The Shuttle was planned for 100 flights and due to many on-going improvements in technology, procedure and materials, it has been significantly outliving its programmed life.

If NASA had a full 5 units fleet, I would feel much more comfortable, but having only three workhorses, they are not only "old" but also put to more work than planned.

I share your concern for the safety of the crews, but for a different reason.
I think that the number of missions already flown is not much of a problem. The Shuttles were built for 100 flights each, not the whole program in total. To date, Discovery has flown 38 missions, Atlantis 32 missions and Endeavour 24 missions. So, in this respect, there is a lot of lifetime left in them. The age (in years) should also not be a problem, as each shuttle is very well taken care of and maintained after each mission with very thorough inspections, and many systems and parts being either exchanged or completely overhauled after each flight.

As we all know, the biggest risk is the fact that the TPS is not covered and thus not protected against damage during the ascent phase or in orbit. Even though many changes have been made and many precautions are taken before and during every mission, this risk is very present on every mission and nobody really knows if and when it could happen again.

Even though I would love to see a few more shuttle flights than those currently manifested, I just hope that the program ends before luck runs out again.

Sorry to say that NASA says otherwise. The program was supposed to end after 100 missions - that covers the planned lifetime of a fleet of five, the fatigue and upgrades, etc. As missions moved on, and lessons were learned (and technology advanced), it was clear that their life can be extended if needed. And it was obviously needed when the fleet was reduced from 5 to 4 and eventually to 3, and when it was clear that the the STS mission will not meet its objective on time and with a fleet of 3: mainly building the ISS. So the program was carefully extended.

We are in agreement on the conceptual issues however, where the vehicle and crew are subject to potential detritius and serious malfunctions of the ET and SRBs without a reasonable chance of rescue/survival - as it was proven by the STS-51L and STS-107 fatal accidents.

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thammond

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STS etc. chatter
« Reply #2 on: June 28, 2010, 03:04:18 AM »
As much as I want to see more Shuttle flights, I also fear for the Astros. The Shuttle was planned for 100 flights and due to many on-going improvements in technology, procedure and materials, it has been significantly outliving its programmed life.

If NASA had a full 5 units fleet, I would feel much more comfortable, but having only three workhorses, they are not only "old" but also put to more work than planned.

I share your concern for the safety of the crews, but for a different reason.
I think that the number of missions already flown is not much of a problem. The Shuttles were built for 100 flights each, not the whole program in total. To date, Discovery has flown 38 missions, Atlantis 32 missions and Endeavour 24 missions. So, in this respect, there is a lot of lifetime left in them. The age (in years) should also not be a problem, as each shuttle is very well taken care of and maintained after each mission with very thorough inspections, and many systems and parts being either exchanged or completely overhauled after each flight.

As we all know, the biggest risk is the fact that the TPS is not covered and thus not protected against damage during the ascent phase or in orbit. Even though many changes have been made and many precautions are taken before and during every mission, this risk is very present on every mission and nobody really knows if and when it could happen again.

Even though I would love to see a few more shuttle flights than those currently manifested, I just hope that the program ends before luck runs out again.

Sorry to say that NASA says otherwise. The program was supposed to end after 100 missions - that covers the planned lifetime of a fleet of five, the fatigue and upgrades, etc. As missions moved on, and lessons were learned (and technology advanced), it was clear that their life can be extended if needed. And it was obviously needed when the fleet was reduced from 5 to 4 and eventually to 3, and when it was clear that the the STS mission will not meet its objective on time and with a fleet of 3: mainly building the ISS. So the program was carefully extended.

We are in agreement on the conceptual issues however, where the vehicle and crew are subject to potential detritius and serious malfunctions of the ET and SRBs without a reasonable chance of rescue/survival - as it was proven by the STS-51L and STS-107 fatal accidents.

/Admin
From:
http://spaceflight.nasa.gov/shuttle/reference/basics/index.html

Each of the three space shuttle Shuttles now in operation -- Discovery, Atlantis and Endeavour -- is designed to fly at least 100 missions. So far, altogether they have flown a combined total of slightly more than one-fourth of that.
STS-1,STS-8,STS-41C,STS-51A,STS-26,STS-27,STS-32,STS-31,STS-47,STS-88, STS-96,STS-93,STS-103,STS-99,STS-98, STS-100,STS-121,STS-116, STS-117, STS-122,STS-124,STS-125,STS-128,STS-130, STS-401,Ares-1X

jjknap

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STS etc. chatter
« Reply #3 on: June 28, 2010, 03:47:12 AM »
I agree that 100 flights each was the design life of each shuttle (based on everything I have read over the past 35 years). That was announced back when there was a two week turn-around from landing to launch though.

Moonwalker

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STS etc. chatter
« Reply #4 on: June 28, 2010, 11:23:45 PM »
Well, if we look at what the Shuttle was designed for, and how the program changed already during development, we'll see that those 100 flights per Shuttle are nothing more than the usual NASA advertisement (they usually tend to blend the public, as they did with Constellation once again).

The STS program initially was designed for a marked that does not exist at all. NASA expected 50 missions a year and that the program even would be self-financing -> they expected only 10 million USD per launch. All that of course was pure nonsense. It would have meant that the Shuttle fleet would fly roughly thousand missions until the year 2000. During development they correcetd the projections to 600 flights until 2000 followed by less and less expectations. And as it turned out that the Shuttle would become overbudget, the program was rather likely to be canceled. Without the US Air Force, which put the congress under pressure, we wouldn't have seen a single Shuttle ever lifting off the pad. Because the Air Force had satellites in charge which were especially desigend to be carried within the Shuttle's payload bay.

From 1000 flights, down to 600 and even less, the entire fleet was capable to perform 130+X flights at the end, due to several reasons. The program became more than expensive. And the system was updated significantly as time went by. NASA really did a lot of changes, and not all changes have been even well documented, as had been pointed out by the post-Columbia accident investigation. They also concluded that the Shuttles are aging and that NASA should look for a replacement sooner than later. The program actually runs on its final breaths for years already. The only reason why NASA kept the Shuttles flying actually was the commitment to assemble the ISS. Without the existence of the ISS program, STS-107 would have been one of the very last Shuttle flights, if not the last flight.

The program is risky, but not just because space flight is risky. The requirement of a potential STS-400 mission has shown this once more. The Shuttle wouldn't even be able to fly a safe mission anymore, if it's not an ISS mission and if there is no backup-Shuttle prepared on the ground. Of course it is easy to say that each Shuttle was designed for 100 missions. If you listen to NASA advertisement they're telling you that the program is just fine and has run only 1/4 of its missions, whilst the Columbia investigation has told us otherwise.

The Shuttle program also has a tremendous anomaly record by the way. If you look at the STS-1 anomaly record, you become already scared... http://www.jsc.nasa.gov/news/columbia/anomaly/STS1.pdf

NASAs programs, especially Apollo and STS, were medals with two sides. Look at both sides. And Constellation would have been another of those NASA medals. The advertising and expectations were big once again. But we all know how it looks behind the curtain...
« Last Edit: June 28, 2010, 11:33:49 PM by Moonwalker »

Spaceguy5

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« Reply #5 on: June 29, 2010, 02:22:29 AM »
But of course, STS-1 was just a test-flight meant to test the shuttle and find problems. The shuttle did have lots of faillures early on in the program and probably shouldn't have been considered an operational vehicle, but that was because it was still new. There were a few really close-calls early in the program, but the failure rate at least slowed down as the shuttles aged and more work was done on them. It's not a completely safe system, but it's much more efficient now than it was around STS-1 <_< Really, many of the failures the shuttle has had were just caused by human error as there are many many things that need checked and replaced between missions =p Which of course is one reason why NASA always hangs up tons of safety posters and gives many safety speeches >_>

« Last Edit: June 29, 2010, 02:30:47 AM by Spaceguy5 »
STS-8, STS-26, STS-27, STS-88, STS-93, STS-100, STS-116, STS-130, Arex 1X Testflight

davidrobinsonjr

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« Reply #6 on: June 29, 2010, 09:51:48 AM »
Quote
NASAs programs, especially Apollo and STS, were medals with two sides. Look at both sides. And Constellation would have been another of those NASA medals. The advertising and expectations were big once again. But we all know how it looks behind the curtain...

Regardless, NASA put twelve men on the moon and did it very quickly, and flew the most complex vehicle ever made by man 132++ times. It's not NASA's fault the ended up the way they are. They work for the government. Space X has also made alot of grand promises. So far all we have is one unmanned launch. Space X and Falcon too depend on the government for funding. If they last as long as NASA( way,way, way to early to tell) we will see what they become. NASA doesn't need me to defend them, their record stands on it's own. Look behind Space X's curtain and you might be suprised what you see. They are only doing what NASA did 50 years ago.
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Moonwalker

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« Reply #7 on: June 29, 2010, 07:44:02 PM »
But of course, STS-1 was just a test-flight meant to test the shuttle and find problems. The shuttle did have lots of faillures early on in the program and probably shouldn't have been considered an operational vehicle, but that was because it was still new. There were a few really close-calls early in the program, but the failure rate at least slowed down as the shuttles aged and more work was done on them.

This was the case indeed. But the deficient communication between several NASA centers, disregarding safety concerns, and not documenting updates on the Shuttles very well, were significant issus which turned out by the STS-107 investigation. The fleet also definitely is aging and the decision to retire the program, based on the STS-107 investigation, is a rational one. The concerns our Admin expressed are rather valid, and I guess also based on knowledge.

Of course NASA likes to tell the public that each Shuttle was designed for 100 missions (initially even for more than twice as much). They like to tell how amazing everything is that they do. And of course it certainly is amazing. But there is more than just flying colours. Most significantly, NASA stands for much more than just for manned space flight. The manned program of NASA is a minor one scientifically speaking, which a lot of people are not aware of because the unmanned and earth-based part is just boring to a lot of people, although it's the bigger part of NASA. People mostly like to hail NASA and just repeat glorious facts and figures of the manned program.

NASA put twelve men on the moon and did it very quickly, and flew the most complex vehicle ever made by man 132++ times.

I'm personally intersted in both, the flying colors but also the framework of NASA and its programs, which causes a different view than just to glorify NASA facts and figures.

It's not NASA's fault the ended up the way they are. They work for the government.

NASA is no less to blame than the government. NASA suffers from structural issues and mismanagement, which had been demonstrated once more by the Constellation program.

As for the Shuttle program: STS-51L was NASA's fault. NASA also is to blame for STS-107. I won't go into details at this point as it would be too many, but I mention that almost 50% of the STS-107 investigation report is about mechanical issues on STS and management issues inside NASA.

Space X has also made alot of grand promises. So far all we have is one unmanned launch.

SpaceX and NASA are two different kind of things while the only thing they have in common is that they launch rockets. Trying to look to SpaceX or another company or agency who launches rockets is no excuse for NASA issues.

As for the unmanned launches: SpaceX has a launch record of 6 which includes 3 successes (the last three launches). Falcon one was launched twice into low earth orbit, carrying one test payload and one commercial payload into low earth orbit. Falcon 9 already was a success on its first launch.

Space X and Falcon too depend on the government for funding.

Not quite. Their proposed ISS missions depend on funding (COTS program).

Look behind Space X's curtain and you might be suprised what you see. They are only doing what NASA did 50 years ago.

SpaceX is a privately funded company which works quite efficiently and different to NASA. With only 800 employees (while they started with much less) and less than 400 million USD development costs, SpaceX has designed and build a launch vehicle that has a payload capability of almost 10 tons. SpaceX has made the biggest commercial contract in space flight history (almost 500 million USD) shortly after the successful Falcon 9 test flight. They will carry the Iridium satellite constellation into orbit.
« Last Edit: June 29, 2010, 07:46:29 PM by Moonwalker »