Author Topic: Ares 1X  (Read 86050 times)

bjbeard

  • Guest
Re: Ares 1X
« Reply #120 on: January 08, 2010, 02:40:38 PM »
At least the water will get out of the way, land not so much...

Orion was only hoped to be reusable, but only ISS bound capsules. The returning lunar flights were never going to be reused.

Moonwalker

  • Shuttle Pilot
  • *****
  • Posts: 936
Re: Ares 1X
« Reply #121 on: January 08, 2010, 07:27:38 PM »
Not really a "myth" Moonwalker - rather a quite recent fact:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24243569/ns/technology_and_science-space/

and a post TMA incident:

http://www.space.com/missionlaunches/exp6_soyuz_030526.html

While in NASA's case the STS program desasters were a direct result of management and decision-making chain almost criminal failures, in the Soyuz case, it's the method and equipment which is still an issue, with all the traditional Russian robustness, simplicity and over-specification built in their platforms.

That Soyuz generally is a hard landing vehicle remains is a rumor basically beefed-up by some news articels. Soyuz touches down with only 1,4 m/s under normal circumstances, which is quite smooth for a landing on solid ground.

Space flight always was and always will be a risky business. Soyuz isn't sparsely trustworthy because of incidents that are not uncommon to happen in manned space flight, less than ever within 39 years of operation. The causes are known and fixable. Soyuz fulfills all NASA requirements to accomplish ISS missions and to carry US astronauts.

And yes, I still have gripes with uncontrolled and uncontrollable re-entry and landing on hard surfaces regardless of whether it's NASA, ESA, JAXA or the Bear... but maybe that's a personal thing.

Yes, it's a personal thing I guess, but also for astronauts who feel different I think ;) If you take my personal opinion: I would be a fool not to take a ride on Soyuz only because of a few incidents within decades of operation. Same for the Shuttle by the way :)

Well, crews ride on Soyuz for 39 years, without any loss and without major injuries. It is indeed the most successful manned program for now. Especially German astronauts Thomas Reiter and Ulf Merbold loved to ride on it (and not to mention Sigmund Jähn, the first German guy in space in 1978 who also flew with Soyuz). They all still talk about it amazed in interviews like lots of others who took a ride and are willing to do again whenever they would get another chance. It's just that a few people still think that because Soyuz is a Russian thing it must be bad or rudimentary, which is not the case at all.

If you're scared about those incidents, then you have good reasons to also not take a ride with the Shuttle, just like with any other system as well (especially Mercury and Gemini which was really risky business). If you only look at the STS-1 anomalies, it already scares the hell out of you not less than those Soyuz incidents. STS-1 easily could have become a rather close one, just like many other STS missions. But that's again something you shouldn't worry about if you want progress and go into space ;)

Soyuz is a reliable system that wrote history within the last 4 decades not less than the Shuttle, and is going to continue to do so for decades to come.

At least the water will get out of the way, land not so much...

An impact on water with 35 km/h and up to 40 G's is something that doesn't make the crew feel the water getting out of the way. Just think about the Apollo 15 landing with one failed main parachute. Comfort wasn't what you were looking for those days ;)

Orion was only hoped to be reusable, but only ISS bound capsules. The returning lunar flights were never going to be reused.

The initial concept included Orion to be reusable up to 10 times, while it is still uncertain how much and which parts of the lunar version could be reusable. Of course the lunar version won't be entirely reusable, but also not non-reusable on the whole. Just think about the interior, i.e. the expensive electronics and instrumentation. I think that the final solution for both, the low earth orbit and lunar version, will be reusability of certain parts only.

The Apollo Command Module had a mass of "only" ~6 tons and required an impact attenuation system and a crushable structure, although it landed on water that gets out of the way (also remember the Ares 1-X first stage impact...). Orion is going to have as twice as much mass. The Soyuz descent module has only half the mass of the Apollo Command Module and only 1/4 the mass of Orion. With a rate of descent of only 1,4 m/s, you cann guess which landing of those three systems will be the smoothest one.

With a 6-crew member Orion and Ares 1, NASA really has created a monster-challenge. Weight is the major issue for both, Ares 1 and Orion. The weight capabilities of the Ares 1 are almost exhausted already, resulting in a smaller version of Orion, shrinking crew size for lunar missions etc. Meanwhile I'm really curious how the program will continue. But I'm still a proponent and fan rather than an opponent. Because the program has come far and still is amazing. If they scrub it now and again change the direction, the manned part of NASA will be in serious trouble for years...

Phixit

  • Trainee
  • **
  • Posts: 59
Re: Ares 1X
« Reply #122 on: January 08, 2010, 07:57:06 PM »
Well, crews ride on Soyuz for 39 years, without any loss and without major injuries.

Just want to point out that the crew was lost on both Soyuz 1 (parachute failure) and Soyuz 11 (valve failure when the orbital module separated from the descent module).

Still a really successful program, just wanted to point it out.

Moonwalker

  • Shuttle Pilot
  • *****
  • Posts: 936
Re: Ares 1X
« Reply #123 on: January 08, 2010, 08:18:49 PM »
Just want to point out that the crew was lost on both Soyuz 1 (parachute failure) and Soyuz 11 (valve failure when the orbital module separated from the descent module).

That's why I mention that Soyuz is in operation for 39 years without losses and serious injuries. Because both accidents happened more than 39 years ago, during the early years of the program ;)

Soyuz TMAT will be the next generation soon. And Soyuz ACTS is expected to be the lunar orbiting version in future. That's what I call a flexible spacecraft concept. It was servicing the Saljut stations and the Mir station (and it was used for the Apollo-Soyuz Test Project), it is servicing the ISS, and it is potentionally going to fly to the Moon in future. Russia will get its chance again. I think we might see something similiar to ISS in future (cooperation), but maybe on the surface of the Moon this time. If NASA only would be set to the proper course finally...
« Last Edit: January 08, 2010, 08:31:33 PM by Moonwalker »

Phixit

  • Trainee
  • **
  • Posts: 59
Re: Ares 1X
« Reply #124 on: January 08, 2010, 09:53:41 PM »
That's why I mention that Soyuz is in operation for 39 years without losses and serious injuries. Because both accidents happened more than 39 years ago, during the early years of the program ;)

You're right, my bad, should of read your comment closer.  :)

If NASA only would be set to the proper course finally...

I agree, I just want NASA to get a course and be free to pursue it. I'm tired of politics causing their focus to change. I know Constellation has its problem, but if we keep changing the program we will never get anything done. Just my 2 cents.

bjbeard

  • Guest
Re: Ares 1X
« Reply #125 on: January 09, 2010, 12:49:49 AM »
Moonwalker, nothing personal here but sometimes your posts come across in a condescending way.

Just an observation...

Orion is being sold with the same pitch the shuttle was. Cheap and routine. Didn't those people learn their first time around? Oh wait, Con is the opposite of Pro, so Congress must be the opposite of Progress. At this point I really dont give a flying F#&% what is done, JUST THAT SOMETHING IS DONE!!!!

/rant

Moonwalker

  • Shuttle Pilot
  • *****
  • Posts: 936
Re: Ares 1X
« Reply #126 on: January 09, 2010, 05:35:58 AM »
Yes, sometimes my posts come across in a condescending way. The problem is that at the moment there is not a lot of good things to say about NASA these days. The whole world, well the whole space flight world, is watching it with big scepticism and criticisms like maybe never before. And I think with good reasons. NASA once did amazing things and an amazing progress. This definately has come to an end sadly. The Ares program did raise so many criticisms which I would have never thought before. But I can see why in the meantime. NASA is doing really bad and that not only since Constellation to be honest. I think exactly the same way regarding the past 3 decades like many do, including former NASA Admin Michael Griffin: "It is now commonly accepted that was not the right path." "We are now trying to change the path while doing as little damage as we can."

The Space Shuttle era is accompanied by a lot of amazing things, but also it carries as much shadows along and is doing big damage to NASA these days. It's a millstone around NASAs neck. In my personal opinion NASA should have updated the Apollo program almost the way Russia did with Soyuz. Instead, they completely changed their course and developed something that can't be easily improved/changed and is bounded to low earth orbit forever. But actually it's the congress and not really NASA who is the quilty one, just like with Constellation. What a lot of people do not see is that the current problems was not only caused by Ares and the current path, but also lies within the STS program.

The gap between Apollo and STS was almost 6 years, while the go, money and development of STS already began when NASA still was landing on the Moon in the eraly 1970s. But these days everything is uncertain. They have to keep the Shuttle flying in order to finish building the ISS (which is really the only reason why the Shuttle survived the post STS-107 era). They don't have enough money for Constellation they were promised to get. And the most worst thing is that they're developing something that raises more criticism by negineers like never before. For now the future of NASA looks: grounded in the hangar while they will have to buy seats of the Russian workhorse that survived any era. So how can my posts within this thread come across not in a condescending way? ;)

bjbeard

  • Guest
Re: Ares 1X
« Reply #127 on: January 09, 2010, 03:26:52 PM »
At this point, the question of man-rating the Atlas V and Delta IV must be considered, if only for a stop-gap.

Admin

  • Commander
  • Shuttle Pilot
  • *****
  • Posts: 4,730
  • Sic Itur Ad Astra
    • Space Shuttle Mission 2007 (tm)
Re: Ares 1X
« Reply #128 on: January 27, 2010, 03:17:36 PM »
Unofficial, but soon to be made official:

- ISS to be extended to 2020
- Constellation is dead, to be replaced by "commercial" or "entrepreneurs" whose task will be to build the capability to haul cargo to LEO (ISS etc).
- Exploring how the ATV/HTV can be expanded to "safe deorb and landing" capabilities.
- Human crews will reach ISS with Soyuz

/Admin
- The Space Shuttle Mission 2007(tm)Team -

Moonwalker

  • Shuttle Pilot
  • *****
  • Posts: 936
Re: Ares 1X
« Reply #129 on: January 27, 2010, 05:39:44 PM »
Unofficial, but soon to be made official:

- ISS to be extended to 2020
- Constellation is dead, to be replaced by "commercial" or "entrepreneurs" whose task will be to build the capability to haul cargo to LEO (ISS etc).
- Exploring how the ATV/HTV can be expanded to "safe deorb and landing" capabilities.
- Human crews will reach ISS with Soyuz

/Admin

Where did you get that information from?

If that's going to be announced, it will mean that NASA will be out of the manned space flight business. Also, there won't be any missions to the Moon within the next ~20 years and no missions to Mars until the late 2050s, or in other words: there won't be any missions beyond LEO in future. Further, I also do believe that a commercial system won't be ready for safe operation within the lifetime of the ISS. At least not SpaceX within the next years. But who else if even NASA doesn't get the money? Exactly: nobody. It is just empty phrases to take away the responsibility.

NASA is facing and marking the end of a great human era, with ISS marking the peak. And if there won't be a STS replacement at all, we can be sure that NASA will look very different in future, i.e. shrink dramatically while removing the manned capabilities for an indefinite period of time. I have to say that Obama and most of the present politics are sissies.

RIP NASA. The Game is over after 59 years of manned programs. Best ones to ESA and Roscosmos.

Admin

  • Commander
  • Shuttle Pilot
  • *****
  • Posts: 4,730
  • Sic Itur Ad Astra
    • Space Shuttle Mission 2007 (tm)
Re: Ares 1X
« Reply #130 on: January 27, 2010, 06:18:20 PM »
I obviously can't tell you where this comes from, but let's say that it's right from the horse's mouth - not some journalist or rumors. This will become public soon. Obama will try and wrap this as gently as he can so that what you say about NASA and manned space fligh wouldn't be so obvious, but the message is clear.

Don't forget however that these things can change, and NASA may yet return to the manned option sooner than the current not-published-yet plan allows.

In any case, NASA will be more internationally cooperative than before.

/Admin

- The Space Shuttle Mission 2007(tm)Team -

Moonwalker

  • Shuttle Pilot
  • *****
  • Posts: 936
Re: Ares 1X
« Reply #131 on: January 27, 2010, 06:42:16 PM »
In any case, NASA will be more internationally cooperative than before.

That might be the only good thing. But, there is a big but: if the manned business would remain. NASA needs an assignment and a course. If Obama does not set a course, NASA won't be manned anymore what it is today. And I don't see any course.

In any case, Obama is not going to leave the office as he entered. He will leave a shadow, not only speeking about NASA but also about the health care reform which isn't going to become reality. No second Kennedey. Just a 21th century shadow cast. The world does not have any leaders anymore these days. But that's a different topic.

However, I can't tell you often enough how glad I am for being able to use SSM2007. You have created such a great simulation and contribute to the memory of the final manned NASA program (well, final for now...). Looking forward for many years and missions to come ;D

Huron_Serenity

  • Trainee
  • **
  • Posts: 81
Re: Ares 1X
« Reply #132 on: January 27, 2010, 08:50:42 PM »
Any word on what will happen to unmanned exploration?

I won't believe it till I hear it. I just can't see the USA getting out of the human spaceflight business...until I remember the vote to approve the Space Shuttle program only passed by one vote in the Senate.

It would be one of the most absurd, shortsighted, and ignorant decisions that a politician has ever made. The American space program is peaceful, inspirational, promotes innovation and international cooperation. How could President Obama possibly justify getting rid of it? It's less than 1% of the Federal Budget! I work in finance, and anytime I see people eliminating budget items that account for an insignificant percentage of their budget, I know it is one hell of a desperate attempt to cut costs and usually means the organization is in dire straits.

I haven't seen any such rumours on NASASpaceFlight forum, so I'll remain cautiously optimistic.

At the very least, we'll have the Chinese space program. Shenzhou 2010 perhaps?
"It is better to light one candle than to curse the darkness."

schmidtrock

  • Mission Specialist
  • ****
  • Posts: 264
  • Hiatus over, to the stars!!
Re: Ares 1X
« Reply #133 on: January 27, 2010, 08:56:04 PM »
I have great hopes for SpaceX. I'm sure they'll be dashed by beauracracy, but a man can hope. I spent several hours the other day on SpaceX's website researching and going wow. I really believe Elon Musk(sp?) is committed to making his dream work. And, it's not all just about being NASA's taxi service. I never knew he was the guy behind PayPal. That's how he made his initial fortune and started SpaceX on his own dime(s).

Moonwalker

  • Shuttle Pilot
  • *****
  • Posts: 936
Re: Ares 1X
« Reply #134 on: January 27, 2010, 10:50:25 PM »
I haven't seen any such rumours on NASASpaceFlight forum, so I'll remain cautiously optimistic.

I don't think it's rumors anymore. Our Admin seems to be right. Here you go: http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/space/os-no-moon-for-nasa-20100126,0,2770904.story

NASA will be a climate research agency basically. But the manned era will be over by the end of the STS program. NASA has no focus and Obama is not going to give NASA a focus on manned space flight.

At the very least, we'll have the Chinese space program. Shenzhou 2010 perhaps?

No. ESA and Roscosmos ;)
« Last Edit: January 27, 2010, 10:52:20 PM by Moonwalker »