I've stayed away from this for many reasons
Yes the shuttle should be retired, Yes they need a resusable and controlable craft, X-38?
The Orion/Ares/Jupiter/Constellation Program does seem a step backwards to me. The only items that would be a step forward would be heat shield, launch vehicle and computers, everything else is tried and tested, and expensive.
IMHO, I thought that a X-38 type of vehicle was going to be the best way forward. The Crew section could be completely re-usable, the orbital engines are discarded, the computers/guidence was going to be designed around 'off-the-shelf' technology. All the Serviceable parts are the Thermal system, Thruster, Control Surfaces, Computers and Life Support. The shuttle had Engines and the sheer size of it made service a financial nightmare. X-38 would of been a lot cheaper
I spoke to a NASA engineer post Columbia and he said and other couldn't understand why the x-38 could of been modified for the Delta launch vehicle with a lower engine rating or something like the Constellation launch vehicle (this has been around for years as a replacement for Delta/Titan). An X-38 could land almost anywhere on land, and is 'steerable' in case of problems. A capsule is not this, it has a very limited landing area as the craft needs an area that is big enough to cope with any problem re-entering. Speak to RKA about how many Soyuz have missed the 'ideal' landing zone. I still don't know if Orion is designed for landing on soil or sea, or both. I've seen one test on soil, which the craft was a write off. The parachute system failed.
Apparently, and in theory, the X-38 could land without the parafoil (this was simulated), but the speed was deemed to high and the craft could of rolled and crashed.
P.S. I've heard that even 2017 is too optimistic for the first manned Ares Mission to LEO.